Wednesday, August 1, 2012

Waiting For Mario.

Another very quick post in-between work.

Well, we got one bother out of the way for another 40 days or so. Next we have to wait for "Believe me Mario" to see whether he delivers on his promised bazooka. My guess, he does not have much of a room to manoeuvre till Sept. when German Supreme court approves ESM. So another disappointment in store for BTFD crowed.

Again, I am not going to front run and short tomorrow morning. In fact I would not be shorting even when the market takes its 1st dive down. That would be the classical mistake to do. From the market thinking point of view, everyone and their grandma will short the market tomorrow when Mario fails to deliver. Because that would be the easiest thing and no-brainer trade. How can anyone not have a wining trade on the short side when the central bankers have failed to deliver on promised free money? Because the market is controlled by monkeys. You may have seen or heard about what happened today morning when the Algo went wrong and NYSE had to cancel trades. There were also some reports of TBTF banks conspiring to rig the derivative market apart from Libor rate.

I expect folks to get heavily in short position tomorrow and day after and I also expect these monkeys to kill those shorts and bears by jacking the market up. SPX 1400 may not be far off just because nobody is expecting it to come, after the disappointment of Bernanke and Mario. So be prepared for the unexpected surprise.

If SPX does reach 1390-1400 level, I would feel more confident to short. If that means waiting for a while more, so be it. After 25 years of trading, I am no more anxious to chase every up or down move and have learned to wait for the opportunity which has less risk. I am not right with all my entry but at least I am working with the primary goal: Do not lose capital!

Thanks for sharing my thoughts. Be safe out there.