Friday, October 19, 2012

51 Shades Of Red.

50 shades for the market, 1 for me.

In the morning call of Friday morning I wrote the following:

As I wrote last night, DOW has been down last 6 straight and 7 of the last 8. That should tell us that we should expect the market to close in red. How deep the colour of the Red is to be seen. It would be foolish to venture an opinion on OpEx day.

It now turns out that the shade of the Red was very deep indeed. It now seems that the indices are making a triple top, if there is something like that in the dictionary of TA. But fear not. It is not the start of the waterfall that we all are waiting for. It is just a symptom of a sick market. Sometime back I wrote that a complex topping process is going on. And because of these weekly ups and downs, it is impossible to trade let alone invest in this market. That is why my conclusion in Friday morning was; Trade Safe, Invest not.

I have done this hop on hop off trade in the past. This is not swing trade. For a swing trade we need somewhat longer term trend which is absent from June. If anyone tells you that s/he is making money in this market day trading or swing trading, s/he is either lying or lucky. My guess, it is the former.

Readers know that we were expecting a pull back since last two days but the degree of pull back surprised everyone, including me. Now we have to see if the low of last week holds. Today’s sell off was triggered by earnings or lack of it. (Although I would say Cycles) let us hope next week the earnings come out better.(because cycles are up till 25th October). So far the DOW and SPX have stopped at 50 DMA as if that’s all the bears are allowed. The Fed has said that they will prop the market no matter what and $40 billion a month have just started coming in.

After the cycle top around 25th October, the next short term low is around end of October. And the important cycles all go up from there. That also matches with the Bradley Date and the COT Euro dollar chart of Tom McClellan. I do not want to guess how low the market can or will go from here till 30th October, but I may take a swing at some longs between end of October and Mid-November. If you remember, I am on the sideline, neither long nor short.  By the way, despite the sell-off, there is no confirmed sell signal from the major indices yet. It may change if we have more selling next week but we will cross the bridge when we come to it.

That made your 50 shades of red market. Now, my 1 shade of red.

In the morning Google very kindly notified that my Adsense account has been closed. Naturally I was very disappointed. But out of 1000s of readers, so far 10 have stood by me and have said that they will support me in every whichever way. Thank you ladies and gentlemen. I have never met you in person and yet you have extended your generosity to an unknown blogger. That I have 10 unknown souls by my side, makes me realize how lucky and blessed I am. I feel that I have achieved my goal.

But God has a funny of showing love. When s/he closes one door, s/he opens ten others. Blogging was never going to be my profession or livelihood. I do it because I love it and as I had some more time in hand, I started spending that here. Making my work of love a paid or subscriber model, will not give me sufficient money to justify my time yet it will alienate most of the readers. Charging $15 per month to 50 or even 100 readers will not allow me to live and yet that will tie me up with huge responsibility. So I have decided to let the blog be as it is. Free for all.

I have signed up with another company called BidVertiser who do the same thing as google but on a scale of 1 to 1000000. So I will do whatever I can to generate Ad revenue and then there is Amazon link which I hope readers will use during the holiday season.

I will be making my regular evening post and sharing my views on investments and market. The Weekly Market report (WOF+) is going for a premature death because readers don’t think it is worth any money. Let life continue as it was, without any bells and whistle.

That sums up the eventful week and the 51 shades of red. Have a great weekend folks.