Monday, April 29, 2013

Life In The Fast Lane

Or would you like "Hotel California"?

Either way the thrill of going up and up and never to worry about coming down must be real giddy.
Didn't I say not to short yet.
Although all your indicators are screaming over bought most are throwing in the towel and joining the buy express.
Where do you think we are in the following curve?

My take is, we are right at the Euphoria stage.
And that was why I wrote don't short yet about 2 weeks back.
Although we went out of the long positions in Jan. end , we did not short the market. We gave up this 80-90 points on the upside because we want to catch all the ride down and not take any risk. And if any of you are still long, now may be the time to cash in for good.
After many months, we are now ready to take new positions and subscribers have been given the tip and trades for the coming week. 
And no, I am not looking to get rich by selling Newsletter Subscription.
Good luck trading all.

Monday, April 15, 2013

Don't Short Yet.

Just a quick note.

A 40 point drop in SPX in one day is  reason enough to say: "I told you, the risks are high".
 We went out at 1510 and today the market is around 1550. I have one question who were long in the last two months. Did you get out in time?

However, I think it is not yet time to short the market. We still need to give it some more time and the subscribers will know when to short.

Same goes with Gold. It is still not the right time to long gold because cycles did not bottom and there will be separate email to subscribers when the time is right.

Grains did not suffer much damage today because all weak hands were flashed out last week. And Oil has some more to drop but I am not shorting it.

All in all, we are in good shape and hope everyone is raising cash to take advantage of the coming Tsunami.

Note to the Troll: New subscription rate for the month of May and onward is $ 99 per month. Only the existing subscribers for April get to renew it at $ 49.

Good luck trading all.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Troll Attack

Last week one Troll send some abusive email because of my call of long grain. As always with the Trolls with origin from unknown fathers, they are afraid to give their name or email or engage in any conversation about their point of view. This one was no exception.
What the Troll does not understand that my time horizon could be different from his. (I assume it is a he). I am looking out 6-9 months out and may be some more. And Wheat sold off 6.5% from around $700 only to come back to that level in few days. I think the Troll saw a paper loss and panicked. But if you have a heart of a chicken and no conviction in long term trend, why bother with investing in stock market. Buy a lottery ticket from your neighbourhood convenience store.
I have successfully called for :

  • Start of the up-trend from beginning of 2013.
  • Gone out of long gold position at the correct time and despite intermittent bounces, advised everyone to stay out of gold and silver.
  • Advised not to short the market till price confirmation is obtained.
I would think anyone of the above would be sufficient for some gratitude but that is asking too much as I see it now.
You may ask, if I know that it is not yet time to short the market, why did I get out of equities and gave up 60-80 points rally? My answer is I am not a market timer. From experience I know that it is impossible to get out at the exact top or enter at the exact bottom. I also know that risks are high and risk reward ratio is not favourable. I am not trying to score a hit with every 10-20 point up or down, rather looking for very long term trends and ride with it. 

But I have come to realize that financial blogging a futile exercise. These days I am lucky if I get any time during the week to write anything. And I am working on setting up an offshore hedge fund and work with high net-worth clients. Folks who don't crap in their pants with short term loss but look for longer term trend and profit. Who can hold their drinks so to day.

So my dear Troll, all the power to you. I am off to something bigger and better.